By: Jake Price and Mary Sutton
Satsumas tend to alternate bear which can be a problem in commercial production. The freeze at the end of 2022 contributed to the majority of satsuma trees in our area having a light crop in 2023. This helped set up trees for big crops in 2024. With such a big crop last year what can we expect from satsumas in 2025? Tracking yields from 12 trees at the ‘Owari Research Trial’ in Valdosta on two rootstocks, X-639 and US-812, it appears that following a very high yielding year, the production the following two years is about half. Therefore, we can expect a lighter crop load this year.
The table below (Table 1), shows yields from each of 12 trees from 2020-2024 and early bloom data from March 26 of this year. 2021 was a very high yielding year. Freeze damage sustained during the 2022 freeze likely contributed to the lower yields in 2023. After two average yielding years there was another high yielding year in 2024. The average yield in 2024 was not quite as high as in 2021 but we did prune 50% of the canopy from 6 of the 12 trees.
| Rootstock | Rep | 2020 Yield | 2021 Yield | 2022 Yield | 2023 Yield | 2024 Yield | 2025 Blooms (8ft2) |
| X-639 | 1 | 52 | 454 | 109 | 229 | 380 | 14 |
| 2 | 210 | 673 | 343 | 300 | 527 | 2 | |
| 3 | 140 | 581 | 323 | 260 | 457 | 6 | |
| 4 | 89 | 633 | 199 | 255 | 569 | 0 | |
| 5 | 159 | 556 | 149 | 263 | 596 | 5 | |
| 6 | 292 | 533 | 371 | 290 | 418 | 13 | |
| Average | 157 | 573 | 249 | 266 | 491 | 7 | |
| US-812 | 1 | 168 | 454 | 193 | 421 | 166 | 195 |
| 2 | 180 | 345 | 211 | 326 | 98 | 319 | |
| 3 | 206 | 503 | 345 | 412 | 454 | 28 | |
| 4 | 207 | 479 | 245 | 330 | 335 | 191 | |
| 5 | 208 | 505 | 380 | 63 | 391 | 10 | |
| 6 | 242 | 491 | 330 | 94 | 383 | 9 | |
| Average | 202 | 462 | 284 | 274 | 304 | 125 |
At our trial, yields of X-639 in 2021 averaged 573/lbs/tree followed by an average of 249/lbs in 2022 and 266lbs in 2023. In 2024, yields were up to 491/lbs/tree. Had we not pruned 6 of the 12 trees for a pruning trial, the yields would have been closer to 2021, as pruning did reduce yields. Following a big year on US-812 in 2021, production was down around 40% in 2022 and 2023. Perhaps ‘Owari’ on X-639 is more prone to alternate bearing than ‘Owari’ on US-812 because the yield numbers do not appear to fluctuate as much on this rootstock.
Looking at bloom counts conducted this spring (Fig. 1) on these 12 trees, it appears that the crop load on X-639 will be down significantly compared to 2024. Bloom counts on US-812 were much higher compared to X-639. If you look at individual trees in the chart below, the yields in 2024 resulted in lower bloom counts and vice-versa. The exception appears to be Rep 4 on US-812. While it is still too early in the season to accurately predict the crop load for this season, it does look like we are in for a lower crop load this year.
Another factor to be aware of in a lower-yielding year is the fruit size. Trees with a low crop load tend to have large fruit. In some cases, this fruit can be too large to market. We are currently doing research such as pruning trees and thinning fruit to hopefully reduce the alternate bearing pattern so yields and fruit size will be more consistent from year to year.
Fig. 1. Bloom counts being conducted by Dr. Mary Sutton on an ‘Owari’ satsuma on March 26, 2025.
